Readers from some time ago might remember what I said then about backing the outsider of a trainer’s runners in a race; and for new readers I’ll recommend it again with some striking recent examples.
It happens with all trainers, but my most recent cases concern probably the top trainer of the present age, A.P. O’Brien.
And the races were very high-profile too. Two of the most important Derby trials are the Chester Vase and the Dante Stakes at York. At Chester O’Brien had two entries in the race, Masterofthehorse at 13-8 and the 25-1 outsider Golden Sword.
The result? The 25-1 outsider won with the favourite second. Then the following week at York O’Brien again had two in the Dante – Freemantle, well-fancied at 13-2 and Black Bear Island not so well supported at 12-1. Once again we had the bigger priced horse winning and the other one second. So you can see why I’m suggesting once again that when a trainer has two horses in the race it’s always worth taking a look at the bigger priced one with a view to having a bet on it. (Incidentally, as to what will happen in the Derby, I’ve no idea. As I write this O’Brien’s runners account for almost half the field.)
Now for something different...
The remarkable coincidence that occurred in the 6.10 race at Leicester on 19th of May has been widely documented, and I am going to add to it – but for a reason. The coincidence was, of course, that we had a remarkable trinity in the race – the horse, the jockey and the trainer all had the same name of George Baker. But the trinity theme had an extra dimension that I haven’t seen widely reported – the horse finished third and at a price of 33-1. Certainly a case of all the threes. Now, I’ll make a prediction. The horse, owned by Harry Findlay, will soon win a race, perhaps even before you read this, with or without its namesake in the saddle.
Next, a system I’ve come across, discovered during my recent trawling through the vastness of the Internet. I reckon it was a case of serendipity – and to save anyone the hassle of perhaps having to look up what that means, I’ll save you the bother.
The meaning simply is – a lucky discovery. And I do believe it was something I was fortunate to find. It is a backing system, it is simple to work out the selections, it is profitable, there are not too many bets to deal with and I have the results for a five-year period that show it is a consistent profit maker. What more can one expect for free? I have paid lots of money in my time for systems not half as good. Anyway, here it is in all its simplicity.
1. For use on the flat, turf only.
2. Only selling races are considered.
3. The horse to back is the favourite.
4. But only if it is four years old, or more.
I said it was straightforward. And here are the results from a five-year period.
In 2004 there were 47 qualifiers and of these 14 won giving a profit of 10.71 points. In 2005, again, there were 47 runners of which 19 won with a profit of 28.71 points. The following year 50 qualified and 18 won giving a profit of 16.85 points. 2007 saw 51 that qualified with, again, 18 winners, but a profit of only 7.73 points. Clearly the prices must have been shorter that year. But in 2008 there were more qualifiers at 72 and of these 35 won giving a rather handsome total of 43.72 points profit. The total profit from the five years is 107.72 points. It’s not a fortune, but it sure beats the banks’ or building societies’ interest rates.
What the figures will be for 2009 I have no idea. But personally, I am hopeful. I take it as a good omen that I came upon the system on 18th of May, and on the following day there were two qualifiers – a most unusual occurrence I’d imagine. And, even better, both won. In the afternoon Lucayan Dancer won at 7-4 and in the evening Sign of the Cross won at 13-8. I haven’t checked any results prior to that. But since then there has been a loser and then yesterday, 26th May, we had El Dececy which won at 8-11. I’ll certainly try and keep an eye on how it is doing for the rest of the season.
And finally for this month, from a new system on the Internet to an old one from the treasure chest!
I have some results for it from the early 1980s, and as you’ll see from these it does not give too many selections, so could be used, like the Internet one, as an extra in your portfolio. In the 1983/84 NH season it gave 39 selections with 25 winning, and an after-tax profit then of over 11 points. The 1984 flat season had 53 qualifying and 30 winning with, again, profits after tax of over 17 points. And in the 1984/85 NH season there were 24 bets and 16 winners, giving a profit of over 10 points. Nothing sensational, but very acceptable, steady profits just the same. And the rules are so sensible that I see no reason why it shouldn’t perform just as well today as it did in the 1980s. Here then are the rules:
1. The horse must have won last time out, current season.
2. The forecast price of the horse must be 5-4, 11-8 or 6-4 – NOTHING ELSE.
3. It must be selected by at least one of the two main tipsters of the newspaper you use.
4. It must have run previously within the last 21 days.
The results given above are based on using The Daily Mail and the tipsters Robin Goodfellow and Gimcrack. Any other paper could be used giving practically the same results. Today, I’d recommend using the Racing Post forecast and Spotlight and Postdata for Rule 3. And the last word. Because of the high strike rate and absence of long losing runs, staking plans were suggested to boost the level stake profits that we’ve given. Two were rather complicated, but the third one is old and trusted and is the one I’d suggest using. Stake 1-2-2-3-3-4-4-5-5, returning to one point after a winner or after the second five point stake, in the very unlikely event of having nine losers in a row.
P.S. I’ve just noticed that our Treasure Chest system has given one selection today, 27th May. Tigu won at 11-10.